China

The West needs a reckoning with America’s decline

philmullan Changing world order, China, European Union, Geopolitics, Rivalries, United States

Despite Donald Trump proclaiming that a ‘framework of a future deal’ had been agreed on Greenland, it is still unclear how his demands are likely to be resolved. In any case, the fracas over this icy island is about far more than just the unpredictability and narcissism of the White House incumbent.

The Greenland saga has exposed the shortcomings in geopolitical nous of the West’s leaders – Trump included – and just how hazardous this can be for everyone. International flashpoints are more likely to get out of hand when traditional statecraft is replaced by kneejerk, megaphone diplomacy.

This danger is compounded by the fact that world leaders should already be grappling with a perilous situation: a potential Thucydides trap. But they are refusing to do so.

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The fall of China? Don’t bet on it

philmullan China, Economic growth, Geopolitics

For years Western experts have been talking of China being on the verge of financial and economic ruin. So far it has survived. But China’s uneven post-Covid recovery has brought Western gloom about its economic prospects to new heights this year.

This dismal thinking draws on real economic problems. China slipped into price deflation in July, as growth in retail sales and industrial output slowed. And in August, Country Garden, a major property developer, missed payments on some of its debt. To cap all this off, Beijing announced last month that it will stop publishing youth-unemployment figures, after reporting record highs – a sign that the authorities are keen to bury bad economic news.

So, might the dire expectations from Western economists finally come true this time? Certainly, economic growth has slowed substantially since those heady days during the 1990s and 2000s, of growth rates of more than 10 per cent per annum. But since China has survived all the previous portents of ruination, it would probably be wise not to hold our breath. Gloomy predictions of China’s imminent economic collapse say more about the West than they do about China.

Read the full article here.