Ten Wasted Years: The Crash One Decade On

This summer has seen the start of the discussion about the 10th anniversary of the financial crisis. It’s a discussion that will continue through to autumn next year. To recap, it was on 9 August 2007 that the French bank BNP Paribas announced that the ‘complete evaporation of liquidity in certain market segments of the US securitisation market’ had ‘made it impossible to value certain assets fairly’. This blunt admission by BNP Paribas that it could no longer price, and therefore redeem, investments in three of its funds triggered a breakdown in trust between financial institutions.

As a result, the wide diversification of repackaged debt around the financial system, which had previously been heralded as sound ‘risk management’, backfired. No one seemed to know which bundles of paper were worthless, so none could be relied upon. Credit markets began to freeze up.

Read the full article here.

May’s industrial strategy will fail unless it clears out zombie firms

My opinion piece for City A.M. arguing that in order to generate a new dynamic for economic growth, government has first to stop propping up the zombie economy. The application of many regulations, of government spending and procurement policies, changes to insolvency rules, easier monetary policies – all these and more have acted to support incumbent businesses. The full article is here.

Foster new sectors

I have submitted a Response to Questions 1 and 2 in the Green Paper Building our Industrial Strategy (Department of Business, Energy, and Industrial Strategy, January 2017). The submission can be read here.

This is part of a collective submission from the Institute of Ideas Economy Forum called ‘Go for Growth’, available here.

The truth about the Single Market

With Brexit negotiations about to get underway, one area that continues to get a lot of attention is Britain’s future trading relationship with the European Union. People still opposed to exiting emphasise the economic costs they fear from leaving the Single Market. Many fret that the two-year limit for Article 50 negotiations is too short a time to come up with a replacement trade deal. Moreover, if one is eventually agreed, possibly after some interim arrangement beyond the two years, they say it is bound to be a poor substitute for the advantages of full membership. Even many Brexit supporters seem to accept that more expensive and reduced levels of trade with the EU would be costly for the British economy, depicting this as a necessary, if unfortunate, expense of regaining sovereignty.

We should all be less negative about the economic consequences of changing Britain’s trading relationships.

The full article is here.

We need big, bold economic thinking in the Brexit era

It was predicted that UK chancellor Philip Hammond’s final spring Budget would be low-key and short on exciting announcements. Cautious and careful was the expectation. Leaving aside for a moment the row over tax increases for the self-employed, these expectations were broadly met. But that doesn’t mean the Budget was an insignificant event.

The Budget provided a revealing insight into the current state of politics.

The article is here.

Keeping the zombie economy on its feet

On 23 January the British government introduced its long-flagged industrial strategy. It was another in a long line of disappointing launches of industrial policies. I wrote an article explaining that Theresa May’s ‘modern’ industrial strategy isn’t nearly enough to boost productivity. Moreover, government economic policies that have primarily propped on the zombie economy are making matters worse. The article is here