Politics

No one voted for Rishi Sunak’s austerity

philmullan Brexit, Democracy, Economic policy, Politics

The Brexit vote in 2016 shook up the British political class far beyond its relations with Europe. Before Brexit, before the referendum, successive governments had become detached and distant from those they represented – now they were forced once again to listen to the people. It was quickly recognised that the vote to leave the EU, in going against the government’s own advice, reflected a widespread disenchantment with the consensus of an out-of-touch elite.

Ever since, the governing Conservative Party has faced the difficult task of positioning itself in relation to this populist upsurge. Under Rishi Sunak, however, the latest Conservative government seems to have given up this struggle entirely. Instead, it is returning to type – to a form of managerial governance just as remote and unpopular as anything that went before the Brexit vote.

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Why Trussonomics imploded

philmullan Creative destruction, Economic growth, Economic policy, Politics, Productivity

As the Conservative Party descends into chaos again following Liz Truss’s resignation, can we draw any lessons from the failure of her plans for the economy? How should we understand the now-abandoned ‘Trussonomics’? And could it have made any real economic difference, if it had been given the chance?

One lesson is that whoever emerges as the next prime minister is unlikely to solve our problems. This is not just a reflection on the individuals involved. Any new leader, regardless of their economic insights and thoughts, is likely to be caught in the stranglehold of Westminster. Over several decades, the political class has absorbed the undemocratic notion that governance is a process of delivery, rather than of leading and persuading people about how things might be changed for the better.

Truss’s government failed to understand that the only audience that it should be accountable to is the electorate, not the fetishised ‘financial markets’, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). Not that Truss or her legion of critics understood this.

The fatal flaw of Truss’s brief administration is that having sensed that a growth plan would be disruptive, Truss and her team failed to lead the UK through those great upheavals. They failed to bring the people with them. This was a dereliction of democratic duty. People aren’t going to put up with ‘disruption’ as an edict from Downing Street. They can’t be expected to just go along with it. They need to understand the reasons for the economic tumult. Ultimately, they need to understand why it is necessary to reorganise and rebuild production anew.

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Britain’s zombie economy stands exposed

philmullan Debt, Economic growth, Economic policy, Politics, Productivity, Zombie economy

Britain is in the grip of financial turmoil. Over the past week, the pound has crashed and rallied, as has the bond market. Pension funds, at one point, looked to be on the brink of collapse, prompting an emergency intervention from the Bank of England. All this has followed last week’s now globally infamous mini-budget, unveiled by prime minister Liz Truss and chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng. While there is no doubt that this incoherent budget acted as a trigger, it is not the underlying cause of Britain’s woes. It simply brought the UK economy’s underlying fragilities to the fore. There’s more to this market meltdown than Truss and Kwarteng’s hapless ‘mini-budget’.

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The battle for growth

philmullan Economic growth, Economic policy, Politics, Productivity, state

Written and published before Kwasi Kwarteng’s Chancellor’s statement on 23 September, this article explains the background to the mini-budget and the financial convulsions that followed. It argues that a serious and credible plan for growth can’t be reduced to tax-cutting. It goes on to contend that successive governments have failed to appreciate the scale of the economic task at hand. And that is a cultural failing as much as anything.

This failing has three key elements. First, policymakers are plagued by an intellectual shallowness, which underplays the depth of the economic challenges. Second, they adopt a fatalistic approach to economic developments, which underestimates the capacity of the state to change things. And third, the political class has evaded responsibility, with governments repeatedly recoiling from making the decisions needed to bring about an economic renaissance.

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Fiddling with taxes won’t fix the economy

philmullan capitalism, Economic growth, Economic policy, Investment, Politics

Britain’s grim combination of record indebtedness and anaemic economic growth is desperately calling out for a vigorous government response to shake up and restructure the economy. Unfortunately, the two lightweight contenders for Britain’s next Conservative Party leader and prime minister have not heeded this call.

Instead, all Rishi Sunak or Liz Truss have been able to offer is a choice between tax cuts now versus tax cuts a bit later. The media may claim that this shows an ‘enormous’ gap between the candidates’ economic policies, but that is just empty hype. Both Sunak and Truss share the same illusions about taxation’s ability to revive or depress the economy.

But recent economic history confirms that tax reductions have no determinate effect on business investment and therefore do not contribute to improved productivity performance and economic growth. If the government is serious about tackling our dismal economic situation, it needs to drop its fixation on taxation. And it needs to lead with a genuine plan for economic transformation to drive productivity growth and lift living standards. Anything else is just fiddling while the economic crisis deepens.

Read the full article here.