Covid-19

Don’t blame Covid for economic devastation

philmullan Covid-19, Economic growth, Economic policy, Politics

It is unhelpful to present the economic disruptions over 2020 as costs of the pandemic itself. Claims that it is the virus, and not the restrictions, that is causing today’s devastating economic damage to production and jobs are misleading.

Understanding better how the economy is being hit is important for several reasons. A firmer grasp of all the costs arising from lockdowns and other official social restrictions is necessary for sound policymaking. Making decisions based on epidemiological models without a broader assessment of the costs – social, health and economic – and of how they have arisen is a reckless approach from political leaders.

Moreover, these other impacts from the pandemic measures are helpful in assessing the lessons to be learned in preparing for and managing future pandemics.

Read the full article here.

A roadmap for economic renewal

philmullan Covid-19, Creative destruction, Innovation, Investment, State intervention, The longest depression

There is much talk from inside and outside government about a state-administered ‘reset’ or ‘reboot’ in order to begin Britain’s economic recovery. But the economy needs something much more far-reaching – namely, a bold and comprehensive reconstruction. Ordinary people must take the lead in our post-Covid recovery. Read the full article here.

How to stop the next cold war

philmullan Changing world order, Covid-19, Politics, Rivalries

This is an edited version of my opening comments at the online launch of my book Beyond Confrontation: Globalists, Nationalists and Their Discontents. Hosted by the Academy of Ideas on 9 September 2020. Read the article here.

Three myths surrounding Boris Johnson’s ‘New Deal’

philmullan Covid-19, Economic growth, Economic policy, Investment, State intervention

Prime minister Boris Johnson’s ‘build, build, build’ speech on 30 June failed to throw much light on what, or if, there is a distinctive Johnsonian approach to economic policy. As many commentators noted, the £5 billion he pledged for various infrastructure deployments is a small amount for a government recovery plan, less than one quarter of one per cent of pre-pandemic annual output. This is like turning up to a battle with a water pistol.

As we assess the substance, if any, of Johnsonomics over the coming weeks and months of announcements, we can start by dismissing some of the fanciful narratives that are doing the rounds, both from the government’s supporters and its critics. The first, and most pertinent, myth is that the economic woes we face are primarily the result of the pandemic lockdown. In fact, they long predate it. The second myth is that we are entering a distinctive era of state economic leadership that marks the rejection of ‘neoliberal’ orthodoxies. And the third myth, given Johnson hails his plans as ‘Rooseveltian’, is that President Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s New Deal ended the Great 1930s Depression.

Read the full article here.