The myth of the population time bomb

In Britain and most other countries today, the birth rate has fallen below replacement levels – usually defined as 2.1 babies per woman. Fertility in Britain first fell below replacement levels in about 1973, and since 2010 has fallen steadily to about 1.55 babies per woman.

These trends are now prompting a lot of doom-laden commentary from demographers, economists and politicians. They claim that an ageing population, with ever-fewer working-age people supporting ever-more retirees, is creating an unsustainable burden for society.

The irony is that such alarmism about ageing and low fertility is aggravating the very anxieties and uncertainties that are contributing to falling birth rates. Thus, it is important to dispel the misconceptions and myths about ageing populations.

We take three here: that falling fertility leads to economic impoverishment; that we are running out of people; and that changing age-dependency ratios are too much to bear.

Read the full article here.

An ageing population is nothing to fear

People are living longer lives than ever before. This ought to be regarded as something to celebrate. Yet for far too many politicians, commentators and academics, the fact we’re living longer than ever is seen as a serious problem – even as a source of despair. Last week, two reports, one on the malfunctioning National Health Service (NHS) and another on the steadily rising public debt, attributed much of the blame for Britain’s woes to our population’s longevity.

But people living longer is neither an obstacle to growth nor an unbearable strain on the public purse. This fatalism is wrong on every level.

Read the full article here.