Author: philmullan

The end of the age of globalisation

philmullan Changing world order, Covid-19, Rivalries, State intervention

The economic consequences of Russia’s bloody and despicable assault on Ukraine are very much a secondary consideration to the immediate human and geopolitical implications. And since the various national responses to the conflict are still so fluid, it is far too early to be able to identify the war’s precise longer-term economic effects. Nevertheless, it is possible to suggest tentatively what could unfold on the international economic front. While today’s military confrontation appears to revive US leadership of the old West, because of its dominant military capabilities, in the longer term it is likely to speed up the shift to a post-American world. The invasion could hasten the demise of the US-led economic order.

Read the full article here.

The fundamental flaw of Levelling Up

philmullan Economic growth, Economic policy, Employment, Productivity

For a long time ‘Levelling Up’ was widely derided as a slogan in search of a policy. With last week’s much-delayed Levelling Up White Paper, we now have lots of policies – 400 pages of them. However, the search to identify the essential causes of lower levels of prosperity and growth in some parts of the UK has missed the mark.

Aspiring to raise living conditions for all, with an emphasis on the most deprived, is a worthy goal. But turning hope into an effective plan needs to start with ‘the why’ to identify successfully ‘the what’ that needs to be addressed. For all its length, the white paper fails to unearth what’s been holding back local, regional and national growth and prosperity. The government continues to evade the fundamental driver for deficient living circumstances countrywide – namely, an economy that has been stuck in depressed conditions for half a century.

Read the full article here.

The fatalism of the inflation debate

philmullan Covid-19, Economic growth, Economic policy, Inflation

When it comes to the misery of falling living standards, we don’t need a fevered and fatalist debate around rising prices and some short-term counter-inflationary devices, but a proper plan for economic growth. The wealth from rising productivity is the only reliable source of durable prosperity. Moreover, it would allow society to deal better with material disruptions of the sort we have had to endure over the past two years of restrictions and lockdowns.

Read the full article here.

Why China haunts America

philmullan Changing world order, Covid-19, Rivalries

The events of 2021 confirmed that the US political class sees containing China as its No1 foreign-policy goal. Indeed, China is now one of the few issues that publicly unites Republicans and Democrats. Treating China as the biggest external threat to America can no longer be regarded as a Trumpian aberration. The Joe Biden administration has been similarly focused on China, building on a theme that goes back at least to Barack Obama’s ‘pivot to Asia’ 10 years earlier.

America’s growing antagonism towards China owes less to the rise of a new power and to a rapidly changing world than to the domestically driven insecurities and drift afflicting the US elite – a situation with parallels in Britain and the other ageing Western powers.

Read the full article here.

Who will save Britain from its never-ending slump?

philmullan Creative destruction, Economic growth, Economic policy, Investment, Productivity

The huge hole at the centre of the Autumn Budget goes beyond any of the fiscal measures announced. The substance of the statement made clear that this government’s bold talk about economic renewal does not translate into a serious pro-growth plan that might address the fundamental challenges of low investment and poor productivity.

Read the full article here.